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Southwest Futures: Shanghai Jiao low volatility, short-term trend is unknown ()

the current round of sharp decline in Shanghai Jiao completely follows the sharp fluctuations in the world financial market, and its own fundamental changes cannot change its trend. The Wall Street financial storm swept the world, extending from the early financial market to the real economy. The natural rubber market was impacted by the decline of the real economy, and the rubber price fell in a straight line. At present, Shanghai rubber has fallen since the National Day holiday. Nearly the natural rubber price is difficult to rebound due to the financial crisis and the pessimistic mentality of investors on the later market. At the same time, the rubber producing countries have introduced production reduction measures to protect the natural rubber price, which to some extent supports the falling natural rubber price

Shanghai Rubber plummeted, and rubber producing countries resolutely raised the price of rubber

last week, the world's three major rubber (12615, -220.00, -1.71%, bar) producing countries held a meeting. Although they did not make a firm commitment to deal with the decline in rubber prices, Thailand and Indonesia subsequently announced production cuts. The Indonesian Minister of Agriculture announced plans to reduce the rubber production of natural manual test interfaces by 30% in four regions, including encouraging growers to reduce the tapping frequency to once every three days instead of once every two days The Indonesian Rubber Association said that despite the impact of economic weakness on demand, exports after too long-term development will grow by 4% this year, lower than the earlier forecast of%. Thailand also demanded to reduce the amount of rubber cutting and give up long-aged rubber trees to support the falling rubber prices; At the same time, Thailand announced to increase the subsidy of rubber replanting plan to encourage more rubber farmers to eliminate old rubber trees. It usually takes years for rubber to grow to be separable. Start the experimental machine again to measure the accurate value. Thailand's encouragement to plant new rubber this time is not only to protect the current plummeting rubber price, but also to affect the price of natural rubber in the next few years if rubber farmers eliminate old rubber trees in a large area

on Wednesday, the large-scale rubber production was followed by the introduction of the minimum price for rubber export. Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand agreed to set the lower limit price of rubber export at $1.6 per kilogram. If the price of rubber is below $1.6 per kilogram, the export volume of relevant countries will be reduced by 10%. Although this series of measures failed to launch the Tianjiao market significantly, raising the boom by 1 angle α Rebound, but to a certain extent, curb the space for rubber to continue to decline

opec cut production, and the market response was flat.

the trend of crude oil market also greatly affected the trend of natural rubber. Crude oil is used as raw material for the production of synthetic rubber, and synthetic rubber and natural rubber have great substitutability. Therefore, if there is a large fluctuation in the crude oil market, it is bound to affect the price trend of natural rubber

what the market is most concerned about this week is that OPEC held an emergency meeting to discuss the production reduction plan after the crude oil fell below $70. Although OPEC announced the production reduction, the market's concern about demand overshadowed the news of the production reduction, and the crude oil market plummeted 5.44% on Friday. The crude oil market fell from a historical high, with a decline of more than 50% in the past 100 days. The failure of crude oil prices to stop the decline will seriously affect the confidence of Tianjiao market and drag down Tianjiao to continue to decline

recently, influenced by the intertwining of long and short messages, Shanghai Jiao has been fiercely contested nearby, with large intraday fluctuations, and the short-term fluctuation trend in this range is uncertain. While the domestic spot price is still high relative to the futures price, the international spot price is supported by the protective measures of the rubber producing countries and the recent rainfall in the rubber producing countries, and the international spot price has rebounded slightly. Domestic futures in this range is expected to be dominated by shock adjustment. In operation, it is recommended not to catch up easily, mainly in the short-term

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